Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction NFL Picks 9/8/24

The Washington Commanders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet Sunday in NFL action from Raymond James Stadium. Here’s a Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Commanders vs Buccaneers pick. We will examine:

The Washington Commanders recent form and player performance

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Washington Commanders

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Recent betting trends in games played between the Commanders and Buccaneers

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Commanders vs Buccaneers game

Washington Commanders Betting Preview

The Commanders are coming off a pretty abysmal campaign last season that led to a lot of changes. Washington stumbled to a 4-13 overall record, which put them in the basement of the NFC East. It was the Commanders’ seventh-straight non-winning season and led to the firing of head coach Ron Rivera.

Washington kicked off their preseason slate with a matchup versus the New York Jets on August 10. That one was a 20-17 loss. Another loss followed versus the Dolphins 13-6 the next week, but the Commanders closed out exhibition play with a 20-10 win over the New England Patriots.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

Over on the Buccaneers’ side, they were able to improve on their fortunes from 2022 last year, going 9-8 overall. That was good enough for Tampa Bay to win their third straight NFC South title. The Bucs took out the Eagles 32-9 in the Wild Card Game, but lost the Divisional Playoffs versus the Lions 31-23.

The Buccaneers looked pretty good overall in preseason play, for what it’s worth. Tampa Bay powered out a 17-14 win over the Bengals in their opener, but fell 20-7 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in game two. The exhibition finale was a 24-14 win over the Dolphins, however.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Buccaneers’ last eight games in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the Commanders’ last five games played on the East Coast have gone OVER the total points line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

• Mike Evans has scored a touchdown in each of the Buccaneers’ last four games as favorites against NFC East opponents.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 275+ passing yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last four home games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• Rachaad White has recorded 93+ rushing and receiving yards in five of the Buccaneers’ last six games as favorites.
• Rachaad White has recorded 22+ receiving yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last seven games as favorites in Florida.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 22+ completions in four of the Buccaneers’ last five games against NFC opponents.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 10+ rushing yards in four of his last five September appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Baker Mayfield has thrown three touchdowns in each of the Buccaneers’ last two games against NFC opponents.
• Baker Mayfield had the equal-highest passer rating in a single game (min. 10 ATT) last season (158.3 vs Packers, Week 15).

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Austin Ekeler has scored two touchdowns in three of his last four road appearances on the East Coast.
• Brian Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five Sunday appearances with the Commanders as road underdogs.
• Terry McLaurin has recorded 61+ receiving yards in each of his six previous September appearances with the Commanders as underdogs against NFC opponents.
• Austin Ekeler has recorded 32+ rushing yards in each of his last eight Sunday appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Austin Ekeler has recorded 57+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 15 appearances against NFC opponents.
• Zach Ertz is just two away from 50 career touchdowns (including playoffs).

Matchup/League Facts

• The Buccaneers ranked T2nd in the NFL in fumbles recovered (13) last season.
• The Buccaneers ranked 2nd in the NFL in 4th down percentage (66.7%) last season.
• The Commanders ranked 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (262.2) last season.
• The Commanders ranked 32nd in the NFL in Q1 opponent points per game (7.4) last season.

Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction

I’m going to stay with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers struggled in the early-going last season, but they were able to finish strong and win the division. That late-season run has a lot of people’s hopes high for 2024. A revived Baker Mayfield (4,044 yards and 28 pass TDs last year) heads up the offense, but there are some legitimate questions surrounding the running game. Tampa Bay finished last in the NFL last season in both total rush yards and yards per attempt. If the Buccaneers can get that aspect of their offense going, everyone will benefit.

As for the Commanders, it’s back to square one as they try to build themselves into a contender. Rookie QB Jayden Daniels will likely have some growing pains initially as the team struggles, but the first-year NFL experience will be invaluable. Defensively, Washington likely won’t be quite as bad as last season but they’ve got a lot of work to do. Tampa should be in control during this opener.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4.5